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Lidköping vs Stenungsund Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland · Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 14:00

Lidköping

PPG 0.17 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Stenungsund

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-17.6%0-27.4%0-34.7%0-4+3.5%1 1-05.2%1-19.9%1-29.6%1-36.1%1-4+4.6%2 2-03.4%2-16.5%2-26.2%2-34.0%2-4+3.0%3 3-01.5%3-12.8%3-22.7%3-31.7%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.2%4+-21.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.4% 40.0% 2.50 -15.9%

Draw 22.4% 27.4% 3.65 -10.9%

Away win 48.2% 42.6% 2.35 +13.3%

Over 2.5 63.4% 64.5% 1.55 -1.7%

Over 3.5 39.5% 41.7% 2.40 -5.2%

BTTS 61.8% 69.0% 1.45 -10.4%

Home O1.5 37.4% 51.3% 1.95 -27.1%

Away O1.5 54.7% 51.8% 1.93 +5.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 3.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob61.8%

A 48% / xG 1.3-1.9 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 1–2✓ 9.6%

#3 0–2 7.4%

#4 2–1 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lidköping1.3

Stenungsund1.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LIDKÖPING · PPG 0.17

STENUNGSUND · PPG 0.57

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.62 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Lidköping (H) 29.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -15.9%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -10.9%

Stenungsund (A) 48.2%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +13.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lidköping face Stenungsund in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lidköping a 29% chance, the draw 22% and Stenungsund 48%, so Stenungsund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Lidköping and 1.9 for Stenungsund (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lidköping are averaging 0.17 points per game versus 0.57 for Stenungsund. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +5.6%. This match finished 1-2.

Lidköping vs Stenungsund Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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