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Musa vs ÅIFK Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Group B ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 13:00

Musa

PPG 0.71 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

ÅIFK

PPG 2.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 69.6% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-17.2%0-210.3%0-39.9%0-4+14.3%1 1-02.0%1-15.9%1-28.4%1-38.1%1-4+11.7%2 2-00.8%2-12.4%2-23.4%2-33.3%2-4+4.8%3 3-00.2%3-10.6%3-20.9%3-30.9%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.8% 10.0% 10.00 +22.8%

Draw 16.7% 18.2% 5.50 -4.9%

Away win 69.5% 83.3% 1.20 -16.6%

Over 2.5 67.2% 76.9% 1.30 -12.6%

Over 3.5 44.0% 57.8% 1.73 -23.9%

BTTS 54.6% 59.9% 1.67 -8.8%

Home O1.5 32.1% 26.0% 3.84 +23.3%

Away O1.5 69.6% 83.3% 1.20 -16.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.9 BTTS prob54.6%

A 70% / xG 0.8-2.9 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 10.3%

#2 0–3 9.9%

#3 1–2✓ 8.4%

#4 1–3 8.1%

#5 0–4 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Musa0.8

ÅIFK2.9

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MUSA · PPG 0.71

ÅIFK · PPG 2.43

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -2.06 for Away, form 0.71 vs 2.43

Win probability 1X2

Musa (H) 13.8%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +22.8%

Draw 16.7%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -4.9%

ÅIFK (A) 69.5%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -16.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Musa face ÅIFK in Finland - Kakkonen Group B on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Musa a 14% chance, the draw 17% and ÅIFK 70%, so ÅIFK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Musa and 2.9 for ÅIFK (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Musa are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 2.43 for ÅIFK. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +52.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Musa vs ÅIFK Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Match Preview & Prediction

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