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HJS Akatemia vs Ilves II Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Group B ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 14:00

HJS Akatemia

PPG 1.86 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Ilves II

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 69.6% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-14.1%0-23.9%0-32.4%0-4+1.8%1 1-04.2%1-17.9%1-27.5%1-34.7%1-4+3.4%2 2-04.1%2-17.7%2-27.3%2-34.6%2-4+3.4%3 3-02.6%3-15.0%3-24.7%3-33.0%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.8%4+-23.6%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 48.8% 2.05 -9.2%

Draw 21.9% 26.7% 3.75 -10.7%

Away win 33.8% 38.2% 2.62 -11.4%

Over 2.5 67.2% 78.1% 1.28 -14.0%

Over 3.5 46.7% 57.8% 1.73 -19.2%

BTTS 69.6% 75.2% 1.33 -7.4%

Home O1.5 55.4% 59.9% 1.67 -7.5%

Away O1.5 54.7% 54.6% 1.83 +0.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob69.6%

H 44% / xG 1.9-1.9 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.9%

#2 2–1 7.7%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–2 7.3%

#5 3–1✓ 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HJS Akatemia1.9

Ilves II1.9

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 46.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HJS AKATEMIA · PPG 1.86

ILVES II · PPG 1.43

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.05 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

HJS Akatemia (H) 44.3%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -9.2%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.7%

Ilves II (A) 33.8%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -11.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

HJS Akatemia face Ilves II in Finland - Kakkonen Group B on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HJS Akatemia a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Ilves II 34%, so HJS Akatemia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for HJS Akatemia and 1.9 for Ilves II (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HJS Akatemia are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.43 for Ilves II. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +6.5%. This match finished 3-1.

HJS Akatemia vs Ilves II Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Match Preview & Prediction

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