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EBK vs EPS Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Group B ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 14:00

EBK

PPG 1.14 · HOME

1 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

EPS

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.2% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-15.8%0-25.9%0-34.0%0-4+3.2%1 1-04.4%1-18.9%1-29.0%1-36.0%1-4+4.8%2 2-03.4%2-16.8%2-26.9%2-34.6%2-4+3.7%3 3-01.7%3-13.5%3-23.5%3-32.3%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.9%4+-21.9%4+-31.3%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.1% 35.7% 2.80 -15.7%

Draw 21.7% 26.3% 3.80 -10.5%

Away win 48.2% 51.3% 1.95 -6.0%

Over 2.5 66.2% 75.2% 1.33 -11.9%

Over 3.5 44.0% 54.6% 1.83 -19.5%

BTTS 64.3% 76.9% 1.30 -16.4%

Home O1.5 45.4% 52.4% 1.91 -13.3%

Away O1.5 54.7% 65.4% 1.53 -16.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-5

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob64.3%

A 48% / xG 1.5-2.0 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 2–1 6.8%

#5 1–3 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

EBK1.5

EPS2.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

EBK · PPG 1.14

EPS · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.49 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

EBK (H) 30.1%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -15.7%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -10.5%

EPS (A) 48.2%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -6.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

EBK face EPS in Finland - Kakkonen Group B on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives EBK a 30% chance, the draw 22% and EPS 48%, so EPS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for EBK and 2.0 for EPS (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, EBK are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.29 for EPS. This match finished 1-5.

EBK vs EPS Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Kakkonen Group B Predictions