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Kumla vs Vänersborgs IF Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland · Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 12:00

Kumla

PPG 1.29 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Vänersborgs IF

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-14.9%0-22.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.1%1-19.9%1-24.9%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-110.0%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.8%3-16.7%3-23.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-15.3%4+-22.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% — — —

Draw 22.3% — — —

Away win 21.1% — — —

Over 2.5 60.4% — — —

Over 3.5 37.1% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 55.4% — — —

Away O1.5 29.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 3.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 56% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–0 10.1%

#3 2–1✓ 10.0%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 3–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kumla2.0

Vänersborgs IF1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KUMLA · PPG 1.29

VÄNERSBORGS IF · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.03 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Kumla (H) 56.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Vänersborgs IF (A) 21.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Kumla face Vänersborgs IF in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kumla a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Vänersborgs IF 21%, so Kumla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Kumla and 1.0 for Vänersborgs IF (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kumla are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.57 for Vänersborgs IF. This match finished 2-1.

Kumla vs Vänersborgs IF Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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