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Åstorp vs Lindome Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Västra Götaland · Matchday 16 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 17:30

Åstorp

PPG 0.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Lindome

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-18.8%0-28.3%0-35.2%0-4+3.8%1 1-05.5%1-110.4%1-29.8%1-36.1%1-4+4.4%2 2-03.3%2-16.1%2-25.8%2-33.6%2-4+2.6%3 3-01.3%3-12.4%3-22.3%3-31.4%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.8% 52.4% 1.91 -31.6%

Draw 23.2% 21.7% 4.60 +4.0%

Away win 52.0% 35.7% 2.80 +45.6%

Over 2.5 60.4% 76.9% 1.30 -21.5%

Over 3.5 36.8% 54.1% 1.85 -31.9%

BTTS 57.4% 75.2% 1.33 -23.7%

Home O1.5 32.1% 65.4% 1.53 -50.9%

Away O1.5 54.7% 54.1% 1.85 +1.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 35.4%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob57.4%

A 52% / xG 1.2-1.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2 8.3%

#4 0–1 8.8%

#5 0–0 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Åstorp1.2

Lindome1.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ÅSTORP · PPG 0.86

LINDOME · PPG 2.00

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.70 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Åstorp (H) 24.8%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -31.6%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +4.0%

Lindome (A) 52.0%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +45.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Åstorp face Lindome in Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Åstorp a 25% chance, the draw 23% and Lindome 52%, so Lindome are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Åstorp and 1.9 for Lindome (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Åstorp are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 2.00 for Lindome. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +1.2%.

Åstorp vs Lindome Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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