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Åkra vs Varhaug Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4

Matchday 15 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 17:00

Åkra

PPG 1.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Varhaug

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-13.3%0-24.7%0-34.5%0-4+6.4%1 1-01.9%1-15.3%1-27.6%1-37.2%1-4+10.2%2 2-01.5%2-14.3%2-26.1%2-35.8%2-4+8.2%3 3-00.8%3-12.3%3-23.3%3-33.1%3-4+4.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.3%4+-21.9%4+-31.8%4+-4+2.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.5% — — —

Draw 16.1% — — —

Away win 60.4% — — —

Over 2.5 73.0% — — —

Over 3.5 52.7% — — —

BTTS 64.3% — — —

Home O1.5 47.5% — — —

Away O1.5 68.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 67%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.8 BTTS prob64.3%

A 60% / xG 1.6-2.8 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.6%

#2 1–3 7.2%

#3 1–1 5.3%

#4 2–2 6.1%

#5 2–3 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Åkra1.6

Varhaug2.8

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 52.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ÅKRA · PPG 1.17

VARHAUG · PPG 2.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -1.24 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Åkra (H) 23.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Varhaug (A) 60.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Åkra face Varhaug in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4 on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Åkra a 24% chance, the draw 16% and Varhaug 60%, so Varhaug are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Åkra and 2.8 for Varhaug (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Åkra are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 2.33 for Varhaug.

Åkra vs Varhaug Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4

Match Preview & Prediction

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