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JäPS vs MP Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Group Stage ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 15:30

JäPS

PPG 1.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.3%0-111.3%0-25.2%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.5%1-113.3%1-26.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.5%2-17.8%2-23.6%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.3%3-13.1%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 47.6% 2.10 -5.3%

Draw 27.5% 28.6% 3.50 -2.3%

Away win 27.4% 34.5% 2.90 -12.3%

Over 2.5 45.9% 60.6% 1.65 -24.3%

Over 3.5 26.8% 38.5% 2.60 -18.2%

BTTS 49.6% 66.7% 1.50 -25.6%

Home O1.5 32.1% 54.1% 1.85 -40.6%

Away O1.5 25.4% 44.4% 2.25 -25.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.6%

H 45% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 12.3%

#3 1–0 14.5%

#4 0–1 11.3%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

JäPS1.2

MP0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.8%

Form & verdict PPG

JÄPS · PPG 1.88

MP · PPG 0.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.26, combined xG 2.09 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

JäPS (H) 45.1%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -5.3%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -2.3%

MP (A) 27.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

JäPS face MP in Finland - Ykkosliga on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives JäPS a 45% chance, the draw 28% and MP 27%, so JäPS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for JäPS and 0.9 for MP (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, JäPS are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.78 for MP.

JäPS vs MP Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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