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São Caetano U20 vs Novorizontino U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 10 ·Thursday, August 6, 2026, 18:00

São Caetano U20

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Novorizontino U20

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-114.2%0-27.8%0-32.9%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.2%1-113.4%1-27.4%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-05.8%2-16.4%2-23.5%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.8%3-12.0%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.4% — — —

Draw 33.6% — — —

Away win 34.9% — — —

Over 2.5 42.6% — — —

Over 3.5 22.0% — — —

BTTS 48.4% — — —

Home O1.5 32.1% — — —

Away O1.5 35.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -76.5%

Bet Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.4%

D 34% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 12.8%

#3 0–1 14.2%

#4 1–0 12.2%

#5 0–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

São Caetano U200.9

Novorizontino U201.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SÃO CAETANO U20 · PPG 1.50

NOVORIZONTINO U20 · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.16, combined xG 2.06 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

São Caetano U20 (H) 31.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 33.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Novorizontino U20 (A) 34.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

São Caetano U20 face Novorizontino U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Thursday, August 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives São Caetano U20 a 31% chance, the draw 34% and Novorizontino U20 35%, so Novorizontino U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for São Caetano U20 and 1.1 for Novorizontino U20 (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, São Caetano U20 are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.50 for Novorizontino U20.

São Caetano U20 vs Novorizontino U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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