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Freiburg vs Heidenheim Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Matchday 30 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:30

Freiburg

PPG 1.79 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Heidenheim

PPG 0.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 64% chance

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a clear edge.

+12.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-13.3%0-21.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-06.6%1-17.9%1-24.7%1-31.8%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.0%2-19.5%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.4%3-17.6%3-24.5%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-06.8%4+-18.1%4+-24.8%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.3% 59.9% 1.67 +7.4%

Draw 18.4% 25.0% 4.00 -26.4%

Away win 17.3% 22.2% 4.50 -22.1%

Over 2.5 69.6% 61.7% 1.62 +12.8%

Over 3.5 48.4% 39.2% 2.55 +23.4%

BTTS 63.2% 61.7% 1.62 +2.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 11.9%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.2%

H 64% / xG 2.4-1.2 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1✓ 9.5%

#2 2–0 8.0%

#3 1–1 7.9%

#4 3–1 7.6%

#5 1–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Freiburg2.4

Heidenheim1.2

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.6% · O3.5 PROB 48.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FREIBURG · PPG 1.79

HEIDENHEIM · PPG 0.36

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

64%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.79) vs P(Home)=64.3%

Win probability 1X2

Freiburg (H) 64.3%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV +7.4%

Draw 18.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -26.4%

Heidenheim (A) 17.3%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -22.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Freiburg face Heidenheim in Germany - Bundesliga on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Freiburg a 64% chance, the draw 18% and Heidenheim 17%, so Freiburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Freiburg and 1.2 for Heidenheim (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Freiburg are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 0.36 for Heidenheim. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +23.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Freiburg vs Heidenheim Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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