Freiburg vs Heidenheim Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Germany - Bundesliga Regular Season - 30 Europa-Park-Stadion· Freiburg im Breisgau Sunday, April 19, 2026 13:30

Freiburg PPG 1.79

2-1 HIT MostLikelyScore

Heidenheim PPG 0.36

Over3.5· +23.4% ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Freiburg face Heidenheim in Germany - Bundesliga on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Freiburg a 64% chance, the draw 18% and Heidenheim 17%, so Freiburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Freiburg and 1.2 for Heidenheim (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Freiburg are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 0.36 for Heidenheim. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +23.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 64.3%

Odds: 1.67 EV: +7.4%

Draw 18.4%

Odds: 4.00 EV: -26.4%

Away 17.3%

Odds: 4.50 EV: -22.1%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 69.6% Odds: 1.62 +12.8%

Over 3.5 48.4% Odds: 2.55 +23.4%

BTTS 63.2% Odds: 1.62 +2.4%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1 ✔

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 3-1 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Freiburg

2.41

Heidenheim

1.19

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +12.8% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+23.4%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5/Under 73%

BTTS/No 76%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 1.8%

Bet Hit 63% (16 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.79) vs P(Home)=64.3%