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Centro Español vs Leones de Rosario Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 20 ·Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 18:00

Centro Español

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Leones de Rosario

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.9%0-111.1%0-24.7%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.3%1-113.2%1-25.7%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.1%2-17.8%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.6%3-13.1%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.1% 37.7% 2.65 +16.9%

Draw 29.5% 34.7% 2.88 -9.0%

Away win 26.3% 37.7% 2.65 -18.2%

Over 2.5 40.7% 37.0% 2.70 +9.9%

Over 3.5 22.5% 18.2% 5.50 +14.2%

BTTS 48.7% 47.6% 2.10 +2.3%

Home O1.5 32.8% 32.3% 3.10 +1.7%

Away O1.5 21.3% 32.3% 3.10 -20.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.7%

H 44% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 12.9%

#3 1–0 15.3%

#4 2–0 9.1%

#5 0–1 11.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Centro Español1.2

Leones de Rosario0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.7% · O3.5 PROB 22.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CENTRO ESPAÑOL · PPG 1.40

LEONES DE ROSARIO · PPG 1.60

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.33, combined xG 2.05 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Centro Español (H) 44.1%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +16.9%

Draw 29.5%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -9.0%

Leones de Rosario (A) 26.3%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -18.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Centro Español face Leones de Rosario in Argentina - Primera C on Tuesday, August 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Centro Español a 44% chance, the draw 30% and Leones de Rosario 26%, so Centro Español are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Centro Español and 0.9 for Leones de Rosario (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Centro Español are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.60 for Leones de Rosario. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +40.4%.

Centro Español vs Leones de Rosario Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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