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Yupanqui vs Canuelas Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 22 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 18:00

Yupanqui

PPG 1.27 · HOME

UPCOMING

Canuelas

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.0%0-116.8%0-27.4%0-32.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.7%1-113.1%1-25.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-05.7%2-15.1%2-22.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.5%3-11.3%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.4% 28.6% 3.50 +13.4%

Draw 32.1% 34.5% 2.90 -6.9%

Away win 35.4% 47.6% 2.10 -25.7%

Over 2.5 33.6% 38.5% 2.60 -12.6%

Over 3.5 17.1% 18.2% 5.50 -3.6%

BTTS 45.4% 47.6% 2.10 -4.7%

Home O1.5 32.6% 26.0% 3.85 +25.5%

Away O1.5 24.4% 39.2% 2.55 -22.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob45.4%

D 32% / xG 0.8-0.9 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.0%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 0–1 16.8%

#4 1–0 14.7%

#5 0–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yupanqui0.8

Canuelas0.9

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.6% · O3.5 PROB 17.1%

Form & verdict PPG

YUPANQUI · PPG 1.27

CANUELAS · PPG 1.82

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.11, combined xG 1.66 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Yupanqui (H) 32.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +13.4%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -6.9%

Canuelas (A) 35.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -25.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yupanqui face Canuelas in Argentina - Primera C on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yupanqui a 32% chance, the draw 32% and Canuelas 35%, so Canuelas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Yupanqui and 0.9 for Canuelas (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yupanqui are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.82 for Canuelas. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +25.5%.

Yupanqui vs Canuelas Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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