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Atletico Atlas vs Sacachispas Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 20 ·Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 18:00

Atletico Atlas

PPG 1.30 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sacachispas

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.0%0-116.6%0-28.1%0-32.6%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.5%1-113.2%1-26.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-05.4%2-15.3%2-22.6%2-30.8%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.4%3-11.4%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.4% 37.0% 2.70 -12.5%

Draw 32.1% 35.1% 2.85 -8.5%

Away win 35.4% 37.0% 2.70 -4.4%

Over 2.5 34.1% 35.1% 2.85 -2.8%

Over 3.5 17.1% 16.7% 6.00 +1.6%

BTTS 45.4% 45.5% 2.20 -0.1%

Home O1.5 32.6% 30.3% 3.30 +7.6%

Away O1.5 28.4% 30.3% 3.30 -3.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob45.4%

D 32% / xG 0.8-1.0 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.0%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 0–1 16.6%

#4 1–0 13.5%

#5 0–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Atlas0.8

Sacachispas1.0

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.1% · O3.5 PROB 17.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO ATLAS · PPG 1.30

SACACHISPAS · PPG 1.22

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.18, combined xG 1.77 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Atlas (H) 32.4%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -12.5%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -8.5%

Sacachispas (A) 35.4%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -4.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Atlas face Sacachispas in Argentina - Primera C on Tuesday, August 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Atlas a 32% chance, the draw 32% and Sacachispas 35%, so Sacachispas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Atletico Atlas and 1.0 for Sacachispas (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Atlas are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.22 for Sacachispas. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +18.8%.

Atletico Atlas vs Sacachispas Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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