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Deportivo Paraguayo vs Central Ballester Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 20 ·Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 18:00

Deportivo Paraguayo

PPG 0.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Central Ballester

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.7%0-116.0%0-28.6%0-33.1%0-4+1.1%1 1-012.2%1-113.3%1-27.2%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-05.1%2-15.5%2-23.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.4%3-11.5%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.8% 37.0% 2.70 -11.4%

Draw 31.3% 35.7% 2.80 -12.4%

Away win 35.9% 37.0% 2.70 -3.1%

Over 2.5 44.0% 33.9% 2.95 +29.8%

Over 3.5 22.8% 15.4% 6.50 +28.9%

BTTS 48.7% 44.4% 2.25 +9.6%

Home O1.5 32.6% 29.9% 3.35 +9.2%

Away O1.5 36.5% 29.9% 3.35 +22.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.7%

D 31% / xG 0.8-1.1 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.7%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 0–1 16.0%

#4 1–0 12.2%

#5 0–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Paraguayo0.8

Central Ballester1.1

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO PARAGUAYO · PPG 0.80

CENTRAL BALLESTER · PPG 1.30

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.25, combined xG 1.92 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Paraguayo (H) 32.8%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -11.4%

Draw 31.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -12.4%

Central Ballester (A) 35.9%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -3.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Paraguayo face Central Ballester in Argentina - Primera C on Tuesday, August 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Paraguayo a 33% chance, the draw 31% and Central Ballester 36%, so Central Ballester are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Deportivo Paraguayo and 1.1 for Central Ballester (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Paraguayo are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.30 for Central Ballester. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +54.9%.

Deportivo Paraguayo vs Central Ballester Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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