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Estrella Del Sur vs Lujan Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 20 ·Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 18:00

Estrella Del Sur

PPG 1.90 · HOME

UPCOMING

Lujan

PPG 2.10 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.3%0-114.0%0-26.8%0-32.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.9%1-113.5%1-26.6%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.7%2-16.5%2-23.2%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.2%3-12.1%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.6% 43.5% 2.30 -13.5%

Draw 31.8% 37.0% 2.70 -14.1%

Away win 30.6% 30.8% 3.25 -0.5%

Over 2.5 41.8% 30.8% 3.25 +35.9%

Over 3.5 22.4% 15.4% 6.50 +27.4%

BTTS 48.7% 40.0% 2.50 +21.8%

Home O1.5 32.6% 26.7% 3.75 +22.3%

Away O1.5 28.4% 26.7% 3.75 +3.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.7%

D 32% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.3%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–1 14.0%

#4 1–0 13.9%

#5 0–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Estrella Del Sur1.0

Lujan1.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.8% · O3.5 PROB 22.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ESTRELLA DEL SUR · PPG 1.90

LUJAN · PPG 2.10

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.01, combined xG 1.94 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Estrella Del Sur (H) 37.6%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -13.5%

Draw 31.8%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -14.1%

Lujan (A) 30.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Estrella Del Sur face Lujan in Argentina - Primera C on Tuesday, August 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Estrella Del Sur a 38% chance, the draw 32% and Lujan 31%, so Estrella Del Sur are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Estrella Del Sur and 1.0 for Lujan (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Estrella Del Sur are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 2.10 for Lujan. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +54.9%.

Estrella Del Sur vs Lujan Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

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