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Riga FC II vs Metta / LU Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 16:00

Riga FC II

PPG 2.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Metta / LU

PPG 2.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

xG gap -2.14 for Away, form 2.14 vs 2.67

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-14.8%0-27.6%0-38.1%0-4+14.0%1 1-01.6%1-14.9%1-27.8%1-38.2%1-4+14.3%2 2-00.8%2-12.5%2-24.0%2-34.2%2-4+7.3%3 3-00.3%3-10.9%3-21.3%3-31.4%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.2% — — —

Draw 17.1% — — —

Away win 69.7% — — —

Over 2.5 67.0% — — —

Over 3.5 47.4% — — —

BTTS 62.1% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 71.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -38.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 68%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)3.2 BTTS prob62.1%

A 70% / xG 1.0-3.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 8.2%

#2 0–3 8.1%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 0–2 7.6%

#5 1–4 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Riga FC II1.0

Metta / LU3.2

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 47.4%

Form & verdict PPG

RIGA FC II · PPG 2.14

METTA / LU · PPG 2.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -2.14 for Away, form 2.14 vs 2.67

Win probability 1X2

Riga FC II (H) 13.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Metta / LU (A) 69.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Riga FC II face Metta / LU in Latvia - 1. Liga on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Riga FC II a 13% chance, the draw 17% and Metta / LU 70%, so Metta / LU are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Riga FC II and 3.2 for Metta / LU (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Riga FC II are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 2.67 for Metta / LU.

Riga FC II vs Metta / LU Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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