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Neftchi vs Talant Prediction— Kyrgyzstan - Premier League

Matchday 17 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 14:30

Neftchi

PPG 0.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Talant

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.9%0-111.8%0-25.4%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.7%1-113.4%1-26.1%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.3%2-17.6%2-23.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.2%3-12.9%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.9% — — —

Draw 30.4% — — —

Away win 28.8% — — —

Over 2.5 44.0% — — —

Over 3.5 22.8% — — —

BTTS 48.7% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 24.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 30%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.7%

H 41% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 12.9%

#3 1–0 14.7%

#4 0–1 11.8%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Neftchi1.1

Talant0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NEFTCHI · PPG 0.88

TALANT · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.22, combined xG 2.04 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Neftchi (H) 40.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Talant (A) 28.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Neftchi face Talant in Kyrgyzstan - Premier League on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Neftchi a 41% chance, the draw 30% and Talant 29%, so Neftchi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Neftchi and 0.9 for Talant (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Neftchi are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 1.43 for Talant.

Neftchi vs Talant Prediction— Kyrgyzstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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