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Alay vs Ozgon Prediction— Kyrgyzstan - Premier League

Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 14:30

Alay

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ozgon

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.51 - moderate Away edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-113.3%0-29.6%0-34.6%0-4+2.3%1 1-08.6%1-112.5%1-29.1%1-34.4%1-4+2.2%2 2-04.1%2-15.9%2-24.3%2-32.1%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.3%3-11.9%3-21.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.2% — — —

Draw 27.8% — — —

Away win 46.0% — — —

Over 2.5 50.4% — — —

Over 3.5 28.9% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 44.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.6%

A 46% / xG 0.9-1.4 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–1 13.3%

#3 0–0 9.1%

#4 0–2 9.6%

#5 1–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alay0.9

Ozgon1.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ALAY · PPG 1.57

OZGON · PPG 2.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.51 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Alay (H) 26.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ozgon (A) 46.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Alay face Ozgon in Kyrgyzstan - Premier League on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alay a 26% chance, the draw 28% and Ozgon 46%, so Ozgon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Alay and 1.4 for Ozgon (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alay are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 2.25 for Ozgon.

Alay vs Ozgon Prediction— Kyrgyzstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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