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Toktogul vs Bishkek City Prediction— Kyrgyzstan - Premier League

Regular Season - 17 ·Thursday, July 30, 2026, 14:30

Toktogul

PPG 0.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bishkek City

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.30, combined xG 2.41 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-112.2%0-28.2%0-33.7%0-4+1.7%1 1-09.5%1-112.8%1-28.7%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.0%2-16.8%2-24.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.8%3-12.4%3-21.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.4% — — —

Draw 26.6% — — —

Away win 42.0% — — —

Over 2.5 50.4% — — —

Over 3.5 28.9% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 43.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 86%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 19%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.6%

A 42% / xG 1.1-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 9.0%

#3 0–1 12.2%

#4 1–2 8.7%

#5 0–2 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Toktogul1.1

Bishkek City1.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TOKTOGUL · PPG 0.50

BISHKEK CITY · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.30, combined xG 2.41 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Toktogul (H) 31.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bishkek City (A) 42.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Toktogul face Bishkek City in Kyrgyzstan - Premier League on Thursday, July 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Toktogul a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Bishkek City 42%, so Bishkek City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Toktogul and 1.4 for Bishkek City (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Toktogul are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.14 for Bishkek City.

Toktogul vs Bishkek City Prediction— Kyrgyzstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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