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Ozgon vs Ilbirs Prediction— Kyrgyzstan - Premier League

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 14:30

Ozgon

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ilbirs

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.29 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-14.6%0-21.7%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.5%1-19.4%1-23.5%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.7%2-19.6%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.7%3-16.5%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-15.3%4+-22.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.0% — — —

Draw 20.6% — — —

Away win 17.4% — — —

Over 2.5 56.2% — — —

Over 3.5 34.8% — — —

BTTS 52.3% — — —

Home O1.5 58.5% — — —

Away O1.5 20.1% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 62% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.7%

#2 1–0 12.5%

#3 1–1 9.4%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 3–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ozgon2.0

Ilbirs0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.2% · O3.5 PROB 34.8%

Form & verdict PPG

OZGON · PPG 2.00

ILBIRS · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.29 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ozgon (H) 62.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ilbirs (A) 17.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ozgon face Ilbirs in Kyrgyzstan - Premier League on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ozgon a 62% chance, the draw 21% and Ilbirs 17%, so Ozgon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Ozgon and 0.8 for Ilbirs (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ozgon are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.71 for Ilbirs.

Ozgon vs Ilbirs Prediction— Kyrgyzstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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