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Ilbirs vs OshMU Aldier Prediction— Kyrgyzstan - Premier League

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 14:30

Ilbirs

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

OshMU Aldier

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.65 - moderate Away edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-111.2%0-29.4%0-35.2%0-4+3.2%1 1-06.9%1-111.5%1-29.7%1-35.4%1-4+3.3%2 2-03.5%2-15.9%2-25.0%2-32.8%2-4+1.7%3 3-01.2%3-12.0%3-21.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.6% — — —

Draw 24.8% — — —

Away win 51.7% — — —

Over 2.5 50.5% — — —

Over 3.5 29.4% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 48.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob52.6%

A 52% / xG 1.0-1.7 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–1 11.2%

#4 0–2 9.4%

#5 0–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ilbirs1.0

OshMU Aldier1.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ILBIRS · PPG 1.00

OSHMU ALDIER · PPG 1.62

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.65 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Ilbirs (H) 23.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

OshMU Aldier (A) 51.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ilbirs face OshMU Aldier in Kyrgyzstan - Premier League on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ilbirs a 24% chance, the draw 25% and OshMU Aldier 52%, so OshMU Aldier are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Ilbirs and 1.7 for OshMU Aldier (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ilbirs are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.62 for OshMU Aldier.

Ilbirs vs OshMU Aldier Prediction— Kyrgyzstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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