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Alga vs Abdish-Ata Prediction— Kyrgyzstan - Premier League

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 14:30

Alga

PPG 2.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Abdish-Ata

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.54 for Home, form 2.33 vs 0.71 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-13.6%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.4%1-18.3%1-23.0%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.9%2-19.3%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.8%3-17.1%3-22.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-09.4%4+-16.8%4+-22.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.4% — — —

Draw 20.5% — — —

Away win 17.1% — — —

Over 2.5 61.2% — — —

Over 3.5 37.7% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 60.1% — — —

Away O1.5 20.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.6%

H 62% / xG 2.3-0.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.9%

#2 1–0 11.4%

#3 3–0 9.8%

#4 1–1 8.3%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alga2.3

Abdish-Ata0.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ALGA · PPG 2.33

ABDISH-ATA · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.54 for Home, form 2.33 vs 0.71 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Alga (H) 62.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Abdish-Ata (A) 17.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Alga face Abdish-Ata in Kyrgyzstan - Premier League on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alga a 62% chance, the draw 21% and Abdish-Ata 17%, so Alga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Alga and 0.7 for Abdish-Ata (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alga are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.71 for Abdish-Ata.

Alga vs Abdish-Ata Prediction— Kyrgyzstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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