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Biel-Bienne vs Bavois Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Regular Season - 28 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Biel-Bienne

PPG 2.33 · HOME

5 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Bavois

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-14.1%0-23.9%0-32.5%0-4+1.8%1 1-04.1%1-17.9%1-27.6%1-34.8%1-4+3.6%2 2-04.0%2-17.6%2-27.3%2-34.7%2-4+3.5%3 3-02.6%3-14.9%3-24.7%3-33.0%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-13.7%4+-23.5%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.8% — — —

Draw 21.2% — — —

Away win 39.0% — — —

Over 2.5 73.9% — — —

Over 3.5 53.6% — — —

BTTS 72.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob72.9%

H 40% / xG 1.9-1.9 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 73%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.9%

#2 2–1 7.6%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–2 7.3%

#5 3–1 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Biel-Bienne1.9

Bavois1.9

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.9% · O3.5 PROB 53.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BIEL-BIENNE · PPG 2.33

BAVOIS · PPG 1.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.33) > Away GOOD (1.69)

Win probability 1X2

Biel-Bienne (H) 39.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bavois (A) 39.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Biel-Bienne face Bavois in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Biel-Bienne a 40% chance, the draw 21% and Bavois 39%, so Biel-Bienne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Biel-Bienne and 1.9 for Bavois (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 73% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Biel-Bienne are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.69 for Bavois. This match finished 5-2.

Biel-Bienne vs Bavois Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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