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Ruthin Town vs Holyhead Hotspur Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

North - 1 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 19:00

Ruthin Town

PPG 1.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Holyhead Hotspur

PPG 0.96 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-16.1%0-24.4%0-32.1%0-4+1.1%1 1-07.3%1-110.5%1-27.6%1-33.6%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.3%2-19.0%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.6%3-15.2%3-23.7%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.3%4+-22.4%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% — — —

Draw 24.2% — — —

Away win 29.4% — — —

Over 2.5 63.6% — — —

Over 3.5 39.9% — — —

BTTS 62.1% — — —

Home O1.5 49.4% — — —

Away O1.5 44.4% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.1%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 2–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ruthin Town1.7

Holyhead Hotspur1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

RUTHIN TOWN · PPG 1.17

HOLYHEAD HOTSPUR · PPG 0.96

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.27 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ruthin Town (H) 46.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Holyhead Hotspur (A) 29.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ruthin Town face Holyhead Hotspur in Wales - FAW Championship on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ruthin Town a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Holyhead Hotspur 29%, so Ruthin Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Ruthin Town and 1.4 for Holyhead Hotspur (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ruthin Town are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.96 for Holyhead Hotspur.

Ruthin Town vs Holyhead Hotspur Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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