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Deportivo Santani vs Encarnación Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 13:00

Deportivo Santani

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Encarnación

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.7%0-17.9%0-22.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.2%1-111.6%1-23.9%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.7%2-18.5%2-22.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.2%3-14.2%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-12.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 65.4% 1.53 -19.8%

Draw 26.0% 27.0% 3.70 -2.3%

Away win 21.6% 19.0% 5.25 +8.0%

Over 2.5 45.7% 51.3% 1.95 -10.9%

Over 3.5 28.8% 31.3% 3.20 -4.7%

BTTS 48.7% 51.0% 1.96 -4.5%

Home O1.5 45.4% 58.8% 1.70 -22.8%

Away O1.5 20.3% 21.5% 4.65 -3.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 20%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 90%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.7%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.2%

#2 0–0 11.7%

#3 1–1 11.6%

#4 2–0 12.7%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Santani1.5

Encarnación0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO SANTANI · PPG 1.62

ENCARNACIÓN · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.80 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Santani (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -19.8%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -2.3%

Encarnación (A) 21.6%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +8.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Santani face Encarnación in Paraguay - Division Intermedia on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Santani a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Encarnación 22%, so Deportivo Santani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Deportivo Santani and 0.7 for Encarnación (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Santani are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.88 for Encarnación. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +9.3%.

Deportivo Santani vs Encarnación Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Match Preview & Prediction

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