Today / Paraguay - Division Intermedia / Independiente F.b.c. vs Deportivo Capiata

Independiente F.b.c. vs Deportivo Capiata Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Regular Season - 16 ·Tuesday, July 28, 2026, 22:30

Independiente F.b.c.

PPG 1.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Capiata

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 58.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-18.6%0-25.0%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.6%1-112.4%1-27.2%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.6%2-18.9%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.7%3-14.3%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.1%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.3% 42.6% 2.35 +6.5%

Draw 26.2% 31.3% 3.20 -9.7%

Away win 28.5% 37.0% 2.70 -13.8%

Over 2.5 51.3% 50.0% 2.00 +2.6%

Over 3.5 29.7% 29.9% 3.34 -0.5%

BTTS 55.4% 58.1% 1.72 -4.7%

Home O1.5 46.3% 43.1% 2.32 +7.4%

Away O1.5 36.4% 38.9% 2.57 -6.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 25%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.3%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independiente F.b.c.1.4

Deportivo Capiata1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPENDIENTE F.B.C. · PPG 1.43

DEPORTIVO CAPIATA · PPG 0.71

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.27 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Independiente F.b.c. (H) 45.3%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +6.5%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -9.7%

Deportivo Capiata (A) 28.5%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -13.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Independiente F.b.c. face Deportivo Capiata in Paraguay - Division Intermedia on Tuesday, July 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independiente F.b.c. a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Deportivo Capiata 28%, so Independiente F.b.c. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Independiente F.b.c. and 1.2 for Deportivo Capiata (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independiente F.b.c. are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.71 for Deportivo Capiata. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +16.6%.

Independiente F.b.c. vs Deportivo Capiata Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Match Preview & Prediction

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