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SOL DE America vs Independiente F.b.c. Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 13:00

SOL DE America

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Independiente F.b.c.

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-18.5%0-24.2%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.8%1-112.5%1-26.1%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-19.1%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.5%3-14.4%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% 51.3% 1.95 -7.2%

Draw 26.5% 31.3% 3.20 -9.1%

Away win 25.9% 29.4% 3.40 -7.2%

Over 2.5 50.4% 46.5% 2.15 +8.4%

Over 3.5 28.9% 27.2% 3.68 +3.8%

BTTS 52.6% 54.1% 1.85 -2.7%

Home O1.5 45.4% 46.1% 2.17 -1.5%

Away O1.5 28.4% 30.5% 3.28 -4.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 20%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 90%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 48% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 0–0 8.7%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SOL DE America1.5

Independiente F.b.c.1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SOL DE AMERICA · PPG 1.50

INDEPENDIENTE F.B.C. · PPG 1.25

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.49, combined xG 2.44 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

SOL DE America (H) 47.6%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -7.2%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -9.1%

Independiente F.b.c. (A) 25.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -7.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

SOL DE America face Independiente F.b.c. in Paraguay - Division Intermedia on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SOL DE America a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Independiente F.b.c. 26%, so SOL DE America are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for SOL DE America and 1.0 for Independiente F.b.c. (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SOL DE America are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.25 for Independiente F.b.c.. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +14.5%.

SOL DE America vs Independiente F.b.c. Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Match Preview & Prediction

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