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Encarnación vs Fernando De La Mora Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 13:00

Encarnación

PPG 0.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Fernando De La Mora

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.5% vs bookmaker-implied 61.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-18.2%0-26.0%0-32.9%0-4+1.5%1 1-07.9%1-111.6%1-28.5%1-34.2%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.6%2-18.2%2-26.0%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.6%3-13.9%3-22.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.9%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.1% 40.8% 2.45 -1.8%

Draw 25.1% 30.8% 3.25 -11.1%

Away win 34.8% 40.0% 2.50 -13.0%

Over 2.5 60.7% 54.1% 1.85 +12.3%

Over 3.5 39.5% 34.2% 2.92 +15.3%

BTTS 62.5% 61.3% 1.63 +1.9%

Home O1.5 46.3% 44.1% 2.27 +5.1%

Away O1.5 49.0% 44.1% 2.27 +11.2%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.5%

A 35% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 0–0 5.6%

#5 0–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Encarnación1.4

Fernando De La Mora1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ENCARNACIÓN · PPG 0.57

FERNANDO DE LA MORA · PPG 1.71

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.05 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Encarnación (H) 40.1%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -1.8%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -11.1%

Fernando De La Mora (A) 34.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -13.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Encarnación face Fernando De La Mora in Paraguay - Division Intermedia on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Encarnación a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Fernando De La Mora 35%, so Encarnación are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Encarnación and 1.5 for Fernando De La Mora (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Encarnación are averaging 0.57 points per game versus 1.71 for Fernando De La Mora. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +15.3%.

Encarnación vs Fernando De La Mora Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Match Preview & Prediction

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