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Benjamín Aceval vs Guairena FC Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Regular Season - 16 ·Monday, July 27, 2026, 18:00

Benjamín Aceval

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Guairena FC

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-16.8%0-22.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.2%1-111.2%1-24.1%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-19.2%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.9%3-15.1%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-13.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% 60.6% 1.65 -9.9%

Draw 25.1% 28.6% 3.50 -7.3%

Away win 20.3% 22.2% 4.50 -5.2%

Over 2.5 50.0% 50.0% 2.00 0.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.9% 3.34 -2.5%

BTTS 52.0% 53.8% 1.86 -3.3%

Home O1.5 53.5% 54.9% 1.82 -2.6%

Away O1.5 20.1% 24.7% 4.05 -11.2%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.0%

H 55% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.2%

#2 1–1 11.2%

#3 2–0 12.5%

#4 0–0 9.2%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Benjamín Aceval1.6

Guairena FC0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BENJAMÍN ACEVAL · PPG 2.00

GUAIRENA FC · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.91 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Benjamín Aceval (H) 54.6%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -9.9%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.3%

Guairena FC (A) 20.3%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -5.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Benjamín Aceval face Guairena FC in Paraguay - Division Intermedia on Monday, July 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Benjamín Aceval a 55% chance, the draw 25% and Guairena FC 20%, so Benjamín Aceval are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Benjamín Aceval and 0.7 for Guairena FC (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Benjamín Aceval are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.14 for Guairena FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +9.9%.

Benjamín Aceval vs Guairena FC Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Match Preview & Prediction

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