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OshMU Aldier vs Neftchi Prediction— Kyrgyzstan - Premier League

Regular Season - 16 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 14:30

OshMU Aldier

PPG 1.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Neftchi

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-16.0%0-23.6%0-31.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.0%1-110.8%1-26.5%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.1%2-19.7%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.8%3-15.8%3-23.5%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.9%4+-22.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% — — —

Draw 22.8% — — —

Away win 24.5% — — —

Over 2.5 63.7% — — —

Over 3.5 40.0% — — —

BTTS 62.5% — — —

Home O1.5 53.5% — — —

Away O1.5 36.8% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.5%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.1%

#4 1–0 9.0%

#5 0–0 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

OshMU Aldier1.8

Neftchi1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

OSHMU ALDIER · PPG 1.43

NEFTCHI · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.59 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

OshMU Aldier (H) 52.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Neftchi (A) 24.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

OshMU Aldier face Neftchi in Kyrgyzstan - Premier League on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives OshMU Aldier a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Neftchi 25%, so OshMU Aldier are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for OshMU Aldier and 1.2 for Neftchi (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, OshMU Aldier are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.00 for Neftchi.

OshMU Aldier vs Neftchi Prediction— Kyrgyzstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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