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Talant vs Kara-Balta Prediction— Kyrgyzstan - Premier League

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 14:30

Talant

PPG 0.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kara-Balta

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.85 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-16.9%0-22.8%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.4%1-111.4%1-24.5%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.8%2-19.4%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.5%3-15.1%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-13.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% — — —

Draw 24.4% — — —

Away win 20.2% — — —

Over 2.5 53.1% — — —

Over 3.5 32.8% — — —

BTTS 52.3% — — —

Home O1.5 53.5% — — —

Away O1.5 20.1% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 55% / xG 1.6-0.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–0 14.4%

#3 2–0 11.8%

#4 0–0 8.8%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Talant1.6

Kara-Balta0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TALANT · PPG 0.75

KARA-BALTA · PPG 0.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.85 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Talant (H) 55.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Kara-Balta (A) 20.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Talant face Kara-Balta in Kyrgyzstan - Premier League on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Talant a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Kara-Balta 20%, so Talant are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Talant and 0.8 for Kara-Balta (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Talant are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.20 for Kara-Balta.

Talant vs Kara-Balta Prediction— Kyrgyzstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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