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Skanste vs Mārupe Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 12:00

Skanste

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Mārupe

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-18.7%0-27.4%0-34.2%0-4+2.6%1 1-06.5%1-111.0%1-29.4%1-35.4%1-4+3.4%2 2-04.1%2-17.0%2-26.0%2-33.4%2-4+2.1%3 3-01.7%3-13.0%3-22.5%3-31.4%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.7% — — —

Draw 24.1% — — —

Away win 45.3% — — —

Over 2.5 61.2% — — —

Over 3.5 37.3% — — —

BTTS 60.5% — — —

Home O1.5 36.2% — — —

Away O1.5 48.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -38.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob60.5%

A 45% / xG 1.3-1.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–2 7.4%

#4 2–1 7.0%

#5 0–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Skanste1.3

Mārupe1.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SKANSTE · PPG 1.00

MĀRUPE · PPG 1.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Skanste (H) 30.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Mārupe (A) 45.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Skanste face Mārupe in Latvia - 1. Liga on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Skanste a 31% chance, the draw 24% and Mārupe 45%, so Mārupe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Skanste and 1.7 for Mārupe (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Skanste are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.86 for Mārupe.

Skanste vs Mārupe Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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