Today / Latvia - 1. Liga / Valmiera / BSS vs Rīgas FS II

Valmiera / BSS vs Rīgas FS II Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 11:00

Valmiera / BSS

PPG 2.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Rīgas FS II

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +2.68 for Home, form 2.60 vs 1.17 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-11.1%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-04.8%1-13.9%1-21.5%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.3%2-16.7%2-22.7%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.7%3-17.8%3-23.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-020.6%4+-116.5%4+-26.6%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.3% — — —

Draw 16.5% — — —

Away win 15.3% — — —

Over 2.5 72.7% — — —

Over 3.5 50.7% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 77.1% — — —

Away O1.5 20.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -38.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob55.4%

H 68% / xG 3.5-0.8 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.7%

#2 4–0 8.4%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 3–1 7.8%

#5 4–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valmiera / BSS3.5

Rīgas FS II0.8

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.7% · O3.5 PROB 50.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VALMIERA / BSS · PPG 2.60

RĪGAS FS II · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.68 for Home, form 2.60 vs 1.17 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Valmiera / BSS (H) 68.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Rīgas FS II (A) 15.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Valmiera / BSS face Rīgas FS II in Latvia - 1. Liga on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valmiera / BSS a 68% chance, the draw 17% and Rīgas FS II 15%, so Valmiera / BSS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for Valmiera / BSS and 0.8 for Rīgas FS II (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valmiera / BSS are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 1.17 for Rīgas FS II.

Valmiera / BSS vs Rīgas FS II Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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