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Ferroviária U20 vs Portuguesa Santista U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Regular Season - 9 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 18:00

Ferroviária U20

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Portuguesa Santista U20

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +2.21 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-11.8%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-07.3%1-15.4%1-22.0%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.8%2-18.0%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.7%3-17.9%3-22.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-016.3%4+-112.1%4+-24.5%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.1% — — —

Draw 17.9% — — —

Away win 12.9% — — —

Over 2.5 67.0% — — —

Over 3.5 44.8% — — —

BTTS 53.2% — — —

Home O1.5 77.1% — — —

Away O1.5 20.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -86.4%

Bet Hit 11%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob53.2%

H 69% / xG 3.0-0.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.8%

#2 3–0 10.7%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 4–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ferroviária U203.0

Portuguesa Santista U200.7

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FERROVIÁRIA U20 · PPG 2.00

PORTUGUESA SANTISTA U20 · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.21 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Ferroviária U20 (H) 69.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Portuguesa Santista U20 (A) 12.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ferroviária U20 face Portuguesa Santista U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ferroviária U20 a 69% chance, the draw 18% and Portuguesa Santista U20 13%, so Ferroviária U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Ferroviária U20 and 0.7 for Portuguesa Santista U20 (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ferroviária U20 are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.50 for Portuguesa Santista U20.

Ferroviária U20 vs Portuguesa Santista U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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