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Flamengo SP U20 vs Gremio Prudente U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Regular Season - 9 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 18:00

Flamengo SP U20

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gremio Prudente U20

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.4 puts the goal expectation near the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-112.9%0-29.4%0-34.6%0-4+2.3%1 1-08.5%1-112.5%1-29.1%1-34.4%1-4+2.2%2 2-04.1%2-16.0%2-24.4%2-32.2%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.3%3-11.9%3-21.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.0% — — —

Draw 27.7% — — —

Away win 47.3% — — —

Over 2.5 50.4% — — —

Over 3.5 28.9% — — —

BTTS 49.2% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 46.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -86.4%

Bet Hit 11%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob49.2%

A 47% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–1 12.9%

#3 0–0 8.8%

#4 0–2 9.4%

#5 1–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Flamengo SP U201.0

Gremio Prudente U201.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FLAMENGO SP U20 · PPG 1.00

GREMIO PRUDENTE U20 · PPG 2.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.50, combined xG 2.43 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Flamengo SP U20 (H) 25.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Gremio Prudente U20 (A) 47.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Flamengo SP U20 face Gremio Prudente U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Flamengo SP U20 a 25% chance, the draw 28% and Gremio Prudente U20 47%, so Gremio Prudente U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Flamengo SP U20 and 1.5 for Gremio Prudente U20 (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Flamengo SP U20 are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.33 for Gremio Prudente U20.

Flamengo SP U20 vs Gremio Prudente U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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