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Referencia U20 vs Guarani U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Regular Season - 9 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 18:00

Referencia U20

PPG 0.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Guarani U20

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

xG gap -1.33 - moderate Away edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-19.6%0-210.8%0-38.0%0-4+7.6%1 1-03.9%1-18.8%1-29.8%1-37.3%1-4+6.9%2 2-01.8%2-14.0%2-24.5%2-33.3%2-4+3.1%3 3-00.5%3-11.2%3-21.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.5% — — —

Draw 22.0% — — —

Away win 61.5% — — —

Over 2.5 63.6% — — —

Over 3.5 40.1% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 67.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -86.4%

Bet Hit 11%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob55.4%

A 62% / xG 0.9-2.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 10.8%

#2 1–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 9.8%

#4 0–1 9.6%

#5 0–3 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Referencia U200.9

Guarani U202.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

REFERENCIA U20 · PPG 0.00

GUARANI U20 · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -1.33 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Referencia U20 (H) 16.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Guarani U20 (A) 61.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Referencia U20 face Guarani U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Referencia U20 a 17% chance, the draw 22% and Guarani U20 62%, so Guarani U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Referencia U20 and 2.2 for Guarani U20 (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Referencia U20 are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Guarani U20.

Referencia U20 vs Guarani U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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