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EC São Bernardo U20 vs Novorizontino U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Regular Season - 9 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 18:00

EC São Bernardo U20

PPG 0.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Novorizontino U20

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-114.0%0-28.7%0-33.6%0-4+1.5%1 1-010.6%1-113.2%1-28.2%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-05.0%2-16.2%2-23.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.6%3-12.0%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.8% — — —

Draw 28.8% — — —

Away win 40.4% — — —

Over 2.5 45.7% — — —

Over 3.5 26.0% — — —

BTTS 49.2% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 36.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -86.4%

Bet Hit 11%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.2%

D 29% / xG 0.9-1.2 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 11.2%

#3 0–1 14.0%

#4 0–2 8.7%

#5 1–0 10.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

EC São Bernardo U200.9

Novorizontino U201.2

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.7% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

EC SÃO BERNARDO U20 · PPG 0.67

NOVORIZONTINO U20 · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.30, combined xG 2.19 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

EC São Bernardo U20 (H) 30.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Novorizontino U20 (A) 40.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

EC São Bernardo U20 face Novorizontino U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives EC São Bernardo U20 a 31% chance, the draw 29% and Novorizontino U20 40%, so Novorizontino U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for EC São Bernardo U20 and 1.2 for Novorizontino U20 (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, EC São Bernardo U20 are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Novorizontino U20.

EC São Bernardo U20 vs Novorizontino U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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