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Água Santa U20 vs Sfera U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Regular Season - 9 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 18:00

Água Santa U20

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sfera U20

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.43, combined xG 2.42 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-18.8%0-24.4%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.6%1-112.6%1-26.3%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.0%2-19.0%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.3%3-14.3%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.1%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.8% — — —

Draw 26.8% — — —

Away win 27.3% — — —

Over 2.5 50.4% — — —

Over 3.5 28.9% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 29.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -86.4%

Bet Hit 11%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 12.6%

#3 0–0 8.8%

#4 2–0 9.0%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Água Santa U201.4

Sfera U201.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ÁGUA SANTA U20 · PPG 1.75

SFERA U20 · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.43, combined xG 2.42 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Água Santa U20 (H) 45.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sfera U20 (A) 27.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Água Santa U20 face Sfera U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Água Santa U20 a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Sfera U20 27%, so Água Santa U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Água Santa U20 and 1.0 for Sfera U20 (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Água Santa U20 are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.50 for Sfera U20.

Água Santa U20 vs Sfera U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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