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América-SP U20 vs Mirassol U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Regular Season - 9 ·Thursday, July 30, 2026, 18:00

América-SP U20

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Mirassol U20

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.49 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-111.8%0-29.0%0-34.6%0-4+2.4%1 1-08.0%1-112.2%1-29.3%1-34.7%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.1%2-16.3%2-24.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.4%3-12.2%3-21.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.8% — — —

Draw 25.4% — — —

Away win 42.9% — — —

Over 2.5 53.4% — — —

Over 3.5 32.2% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 48.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -86.4%

Bet Hit 11%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.4%

A 43% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 0–1 11.8%

#3 0–0 7.7%

#4 1–2 9.3%

#5 0–2 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

América-SP U201.0

Mirassol U201.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AMÉRICA-SP U20 · PPG 1.00

MIRASSOL U20 · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.49 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

América-SP U20 (H) 31.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Mirassol U20 (A) 42.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

América-SP U20 face Mirassol U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Thursday, July 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives América-SP U20 a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Mirassol U20 43%, so Mirassol U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for América-SP U20 and 1.5 for Mirassol U20 (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, América-SP U20 are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.67 for Mirassol U20.

América-SP U20 vs Mirassol U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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