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Atlético Tembetary vs Resistencia Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Regular Season - 16 ·Tuesday, July 28, 2026, 20:00

Atlético Tembetary

PPG 1.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Resistencia

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+18.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-16.1%0-23.1%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.6%1-110.9%1-25.7%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.8%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.7%3-15.9%3-23.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-14.0%4+-22.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.8% 51.3% 1.95 +4.9%

Draw 22.8% 30.8% 3.25 -15.5%

Away win 23.4% 30.3% 3.30 -13.7%

Over 2.5 60.7% 51.3% 1.95 +18.4%

Over 3.5 37.5% 31.3% 3.20 +20.0%

BTTS 55.4% 58.1% 1.72 -4.7%

Home O1.5 53.5% 48.3% 2.07 +10.8%

Away O1.5 34.9% 34.2% 2.92 +1.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 25%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.4%

H 54% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlético Tembetary1.8

Resistencia1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLÉTICO TEMBETARY · PPG 1.71

RESISTENCIA · PPG 0.86

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atlético Tembetary (H) 53.8%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +4.9%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -15.5%

Resistencia (A) 23.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -13.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlético Tembetary face Resistencia in Paraguay - Division Intermedia on Tuesday, July 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlético Tembetary a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Resistencia 23%, so Atlético Tembetary are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Atlético Tembetary and 1.0 for Resistencia (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlético Tembetary are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.86 for Resistencia. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +20.0%.

Atlético Tembetary vs Resistencia Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Match Preview & Prediction

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