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Sportivo Carapeguá vs General Caballero Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 13:00

Sportivo Carapeguá

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

General Caballero

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-17.8%0-26.9%0-34.1%0-4+2.7%1 1-05.9%1-110.5%1-29.3%1-35.5%1-4+3.7%2 2-04.0%2-17.1%2-26.3%2-33.7%2-4+2.5%3 3-01.8%3-13.2%3-22.8%3-31.7%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.3% 35.7% 2.80 -9.6%

Draw 24.8% 30.3% 3.30 -10.9%

Away win 42.9% 45.5% 2.20 -5.6%

Over 2.5 60.7% 60.6% 1.65 +0.1%

Over 3.5 39.0% 39.7% 2.52 -1.7%

BTTS 62.5% 66.2% 1.51 -5.6%

Home O1.5 38.5% 44.1% 2.27 -12.6%

Away O1.5 49.0% 52.1% 1.92 -5.9%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob62.5%

A 43% / xG 1.4-1.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 2–1 7.1%

#4 0–2 6.9%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sportivo Carapeguá1.4

General Caballero1.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 39.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTIVO CARAPEGUÁ · PPG 1.86

GENERAL CABALLERO · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sportivo Carapeguá (H) 32.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -9.6%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.9%

General Caballero (A) 42.9%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -5.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sportivo Carapeguá face General Caballero in Paraguay - Division Intermedia on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sportivo Carapeguá a 32% chance, the draw 25% and General Caballero 43%, so General Caballero are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sportivo Carapeguá and 1.8 for General Caballero (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sportivo Carapeguá are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.14 for General Caballero. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +6.7%.

Sportivo Carapeguá vs General Caballero Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Match Preview & Prediction

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