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Bærum vs Vålerenga II Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 12:00

Bærum

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Vålerenga II

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.6% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.4%0-10.7%0-20.5%0-30.3%0-4+0.2%1 1-01.6%1-12.6%1-22.1%1-31.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-03.2%2-15.1%2-24.0%2-32.1%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.1%3-16.5%3-25.2%3-32.8%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-011.0%4+-117.5%4+-213.9%4+-37.4%4+-4+4.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.9% 80.0% 1.25 -18.9%

Draw 16.8% 16.7% 6.00 +0.5%

Away win 18.3% 14.3% 7.00 +16.9%

Over 2.5 79.6% 85.5% 1.17 -6.9%

Over 3.5 59.1% 72.5% 1.38 -18.4%

BTTS 69.5% 74.6% 1.34 -6.9%

Home O1.5 77.8% — — —

Away O1.5 49.0% 39.8% 2.51 +23.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob69.5%

H 65% / xG 3.9-1.6 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 6.5%

#2 4–1 6.3%

#3 3–2 5.2%

#4 2–1 5.1%

#5 4–2 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bærum3.9

Vålerenga II1.6

COMBINED 5.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.6% · O3.5 PROB 59.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BÆRUM · PPG 2.00

VÅLERENGA II · PPG 1.17

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.27 for Home, form 2.00 vs 1.17 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Bærum (H) 64.9%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -18.9%

Draw 16.8%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +0.5%

Vålerenga II (A) 18.3%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +16.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bærum face Vålerenga II in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1 on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bærum a 65% chance, the draw 17% and Vålerenga II 18%, so Bærum are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.9 for Bærum and 1.6 for Vålerenga II (5.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bærum are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.17 for Vålerenga II. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +23.0%.

Bærum vs Vålerenga II Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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