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North District vs Wofoo Tai Po Prediction— Hong-Kong - Premier League

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 08:00

North District

PPG 1.47 · HOME

LAST 5

WD ···

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Wofoo Tai Po

PPG 1.59 · AWAY

LAST 5

LW ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-14.8%0-24.4%0-32.7%0-4+1.9%1 1-04.7%1-18.6%1-28.0%1-34.9%1-4+3.5%2 2-04.2%2-17.8%2-27.2%2-34.5%2-4+3.1%3 3-02.5%3-14.7%3-24.3%3-32.7%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-13.2%4+-23.0%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.0% 38.2% 2.62 +2.2%

Draw 22.5% 30.3% 3.30 -15.4%

Away win 38.6% 44.4% 2.25 -13.2%

Over 2.5 67.3% 66.7% 1.50 +0.9%

Over 3.5 43.5% 48.5% 2.06 -10.4%

BTTS 63.2% 71.4% 1.40 -11.5%

Home O1.5 48.8% 52.1% 1.92 -6.3%

Away O1.5 55.2% 56.8% 1.76 -2.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.2%

H 39% / xG 1.8-1.9 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 2–1 7.8%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

North District1.8

Wofoo Tai Po1.9

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTH DISTRICT · PPG 1.47

WOFOO TAI PO · PPG 1.59

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.05 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

North District (H) 39.0%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +2.2%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -15.4%

Wofoo Tai Po (A) 38.6%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -13.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

North District face Wofoo Tai Po in Hong-Kong - Premier League on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives North District a 39% chance, the draw 23% and Wofoo Tai Po 39%, so North District are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for North District and 1.9 for Wofoo Tai Po (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, North District are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.59 for Wofoo Tai Po. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +8.3%. This match finished 2-0.

North District vs Wofoo Tai Po Prediction— Hong-Kong - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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