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Gimnasia Mendoza 2 vs Rosario Central Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 18:00

Gimnasia Mendoza 2

PPG 1.42 · HOME

UPCOMING

Rosario Central Res.

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-111.4%0-26.4%0-32.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.8%1-113.3%1-27.5%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.9%2-17.7%2-24.3%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.7%3-13.0%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.8% 38.2% 2.62 -1.0%

Draw 27.2% 37.0% 2.70 -15.9%

Away win 35.0% 38.5% 2.60 -9.0%

Over 2.5 50.4% 45.5% 2.20 +10.9%

Over 3.5 28.7% 27.9% 3.58 +1.7%

BTTS 52.9% 55.6% 1.80 -4.8%

Home O1.5 32.0% 37.9% 2.64 -15.5%

Away O1.5 33.2% 38.9% 2.57 -14.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 104 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -10.9%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.9%

H 38% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 1–0 11.8%

#3 0–0 10.1%

#4 0–1 11.4%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimnasia Mendoza 21.2

Rosario Central Res.1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMNASIA MENDOZA 2 · PPG 1.42

ROSARIO CENTRAL RES. · PPG 1.45

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.04, combined xG 2.29 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gimnasia Mendoza 2 (H) 37.8%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -1.0%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -15.9%

Rosario Central Res. (A) 35.0%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -9.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimnasia Mendoza 2 face Rosario Central Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimnasia Mendoza 2 a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Rosario Central Res. 35%, so Gimnasia Mendoza 2 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Gimnasia Mendoza 2 and 1.1 for Rosario Central Res. (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimnasia Mendoza 2 are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.45 for Rosario Central Res.. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.9%.

Gimnasia Mendoza 2 vs Rosario Central Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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