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Defensa y Justicia Res. vs Independiente Riva. Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 18:00

Defensa y Justicia Res.

PPG 1.82 · HOME

UPCOMING

Independiente Riva. Res.

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 51.5% — a clear edge.

+28.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-13.7%0-21.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.7%1-18.5%1-24.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.0%2-19.8%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.6%3-17.5%3-23.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-07.5%4+-17.3%4+-23.6%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.2% 51.3% 1.95 +11.5%

Draw 21.0% 33.3% 3.00 -22.2%

Away win 21.8% 28.6% 3.50 -14.2%

Over 2.5 63.7% 51.3% 1.95 +24.2%

Over 3.5 40.2% 32.5% 3.08 +23.8%

BTTS 57.3% 57.8% 1.73 -0.9%

Home O1.5 66.3% 51.5% 1.94 +28.6%

Away O1.5 28.1% 32.9% 3.04 -8.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 104 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -10.9%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob57.3%

H 57% / xG 2.3-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–0 10.0%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–2 4.2%

#5 3–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Defensa y Justicia Res.2.3

Independiente Riva. Res.1.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DEFENSA Y JUSTICIA RES. · PPG 1.82

INDEPENDIENTE RIVA. RES. · PPG 0.92

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.31 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Defensa y Justicia Res. (H) 57.2%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +11.5%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -22.2%

Independiente Riva. Res. (A) 21.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -14.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Defensa y Justicia Res. face Independiente Riva. Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Defensa y Justicia Res. a 57% chance, the draw 21% and Independiente Riva. Res. 22%, so Defensa y Justicia Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Defensa y Justicia Res. and 1.0 for Independiente Riva. Res. (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Defensa y Justicia Res. are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 0.92 for Independiente Riva. Res.. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +28.6%.

Defensa y Justicia Res. vs Independiente Riva. Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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