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Newell's Old Boys Res. vs Deportivo Riestra Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 18:00

Newell's Old Boys Res.

PPG 2.27 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Riestra Res.

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-18.6%0-23.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.7%1-112.4%1-25.2%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-18.9%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.1%3-14.3%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 58.8% 1.70 -20.4%

Draw 26.5% 30.3% 3.30 -7.5%

Away win 26.7% 22.2% 4.50 +12.1%

Over 2.5 50.4% 42.6% 2.35 +18.4%

Over 3.5 28.5% 25.4% 3.94 +7.4%

BTTS 49.9% 50.3% 1.99 -0.7%

Home O1.5 39.9% 48.3% 2.07 -17.4%

Away O1.5 24.1% 24.4% 4.10 -0.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 98 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.9%

H 47% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 14.7%

#3 0–0 10.2%

#4 2–0 10.6%

#5 0–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Newell's Old Boys Res.1.4

Deportivo Riestra Res.0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NEWELL'S OLD BOYS RES. · PPG 2.27

DEPORTIVO RIESTRA RES. · PPG 0.92

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Newell's Old Boys Res. (H) 46.8%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -20.4%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.5%

Deportivo Riestra Res. (A) 26.7%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +12.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Newell's Old Boys Res. face Deportivo Riestra Res. in Argentina - Reserve League on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Newell's Old Boys Res. a 47% chance, the draw 27% and Deportivo Riestra Res. 27%, so Newell's Old Boys Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Newell's Old Boys Res. and 0.8 for Deportivo Riestra Res. (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Newell's Old Boys Res. are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 0.92 for Deportivo Riestra Res.. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.4%.

Newell's Old Boys Res. vs Deportivo Riestra Res. Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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