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Boca Juniors Res. vs Quilmes 2 Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 22:00

Boca Juniors Res.

PPG 2.21 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Quilmes 2

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLL

// Model verdict

Home 52% chance

xG gap +0.87 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.0%0-17.7%0-21.8%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-021.7%1-110.4%1-22.5%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.6%2-17.0%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-06.6%3-13.2%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-11.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.7% — — —

Draw 27.2% — — —

Away win 21.1% — — —

Over 2.5 38.8% — — —

Over 3.5 18.5% — — —

BTTS 42.4% — — —

Home O1.5 39.5% — — —

Away O1.5 14.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -10.2%

Bet Hit 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 21.7%

#2 0–0 16.0%

#3 2–0 14.6%

#4 0–1 7.7%

#5 1–1 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Boca Juniors Res.1.4

Quilmes 20.5

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BOCA JUNIORS RES. · PPG 2.21

QUILMES 2 · PPG 1.27

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.87 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Boca Juniors Res. (H) 51.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Quilmes 2 (A) 21.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Boca Juniors Res. face Quilmes 2 in Argentina - Reserve League on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Boca Juniors Res. a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Quilmes 2 21%, so Boca Juniors Res. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Boca Juniors Res. and 0.5 for Quilmes 2 (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Boca Juniors Res. are averaging 2.21 points per game versus 1.27 for Quilmes 2. This match finished 1-0.

Boca Juniors Res. vs Quilmes 2 Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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