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Ferro 2 vs Estudiantes La Plata Res Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Clausura · Matchday 7 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 18:00

Ferro 2

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Estudiantes La Plata Res

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 53.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-111.5%0-28.6%0-34.3%0-4+2.2%1 1-08.2%1-112.3%1-29.2%1-34.6%1-4+2.4%2 2-04.4%2-16.6%2-24.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.6%3-12.4%3-21.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.7% 27.8% 3.60 -0.2%

Draw 24.3% 29.4% 3.40 -10.4%

Away win 48.1% 54.1% 1.85 -11.0%

Over 2.5 53.8% 46.5% 2.15 +15.7%

Over 3.5 31.7% 27.2% 3.68 +16.7%

BTTS 54.6% 53.8% 1.86 +1.6%

Home O1.5 30.8% 27.9% 3.58 +10.3%

Away O1.5 42.5% 48.5% 2.06 -12.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 98 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.6%

A 48% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–1 11.5%

#3 1–2 9.2%

#4 0–2 8.6%

#5 0–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ferro 21.1

Estudiantes La Plata Res1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FERRO 2 · PPG 1.50

ESTUDIANTES LA PLATA RES · PPG 1.45

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ferro 2 (H) 27.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -0.2%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.4%

Estudiantes La Plata Res (A) 48.1%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -11.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ferro 2 face Estudiantes La Plata Res in Argentina - Reserve League on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ferro 2 a 28% chance, the draw 24% and Estudiantes La Plata Res 48%, so Estudiantes La Plata Res are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Ferro 2 and 1.5 for Estudiantes La Plata Res (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ferro 2 are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.45 for Estudiantes La Plata Res. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.7%.

Ferro 2 vs Estudiantes La Plata Res Prediction— Argentina - Reserve League

Match Preview & Prediction

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