Gebzespor vs Mardin BB Prediction— Turkey - 2. Lig

Turkey - 2. Lig Kırmızı - 33 Sunday, April 19, 2026 12:00

Gebzespor PPG 2.13

1-2 MISS

Mardin BB PPG 1.81

Away· +26.8% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Gebzespor face Mardin BB in Turkey - 2. Lig on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gebzespor a 29% chance, the draw 30% and Mardin BB 41%, so Mardin BB are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Gebzespor and 1.2 for Mardin BB (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gebzespor are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 1.81 for Mardin BB. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +26.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 29.2%

Odds: 2.05 EV: -40.1%

Draw 29.8%

Odds: 3.30 EV: -1.7%

Away 40.9%

Odds: 3.10 EV: +26.8%

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 34.7% Odds: 1.80 -37.5%

Over 3.5 15.9% Odds: — —

BTTS 41.5% Odds: — —

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-1 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 0-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Gebzespor

0.93

Mardin BB

1.16

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.13) > Away GOOD (1.81)