Today / Turkey - 2. Lig / Gebzespor vs Mardin BB

Gebzespor vs Mardin BB Prediction— Turkey - 2. Lig

Kırmızı - 33 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 12:00

Gebzespor

PPG 2.13 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Mardin BB

PPG 1.81 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.4%0-114.4%0-28.3%0-33.2%0-4+1.2%1 1-011.5%1-113.3%1-27.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-05.4%2-16.2%2-23.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.7%3-11.9%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.2% 48.8% 2.05 -40.1%

Draw 29.8% 30.3% 3.30 -1.7%

Away win 40.9% 32.3% 3.10 +26.8%

Over 2.5 34.7% 55.6% 1.80 -37.5%

Over 3.5 15.9% — — —

BTTS 41.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -56.6%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob41.5%

A 41% / xG 0.9-1.2 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 14.4%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 0–0 12.4%

#4 1–0 11.5%

#5 0–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gebzespor0.9

Mardin BB1.2

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.7% · O3.5 PROB 15.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GEBZESPOR · PPG 2.13

MARDIN BB · PPG 1.81

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.13) > Away GOOD (1.81)

Win probability 1X2

Gebzespor (H) 29.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -40.1%

Draw 29.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -1.7%

Mardin BB (A) 40.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +26.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gebzespor face Mardin BB in Turkey - 2. Lig on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gebzespor a 29% chance, the draw 30% and Mardin BB 41%, so Mardin BB are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Gebzespor and 1.2 for Mardin BB (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gebzespor are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 1.81 for Mardin BB. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +26.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Gebzespor vs Mardin BB Prediction— Turkey - 2. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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