Today / Turkey - 2. Lig / Muglaspor vs Sanliurfaspor

Muglaspor vs Sanliurfaspor Prediction— Turkey - 2. Lig

Beyaz - 37 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 12:00

Muglaspor

PPG 2.18 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Sanliurfaspor

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.5% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+18.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.7%0-19.0%0-23.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.3%1-112.2%1-24.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.7%2-18.3%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.3%3-13.7%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-11.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 44.4% 2.25 +18.1%

Draw 28.1% 32.3% 3.10 -12.9%

Away win 19.4% 35.1% 2.85 -44.7%

Over 2.5 34.0% 50.0% 2.00 -32.0%

Over 3.5 15.4% — — —

BTTS 37.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -56.6%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob37.5%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.3%

#2 0–0✓ 12.7%

#3 1–1 12.2%

#4 2–0 11.7%

#5 0–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Muglaspor1.4

Sanliurfaspor0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.0% · O3.5 PROB 15.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MUGLASPOR · PPG 2.18

SANLIURFASPOR · PPG 1.82

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.18) > Away GOOD (1.82)

Win probability 1X2

Muglaspor (H) 52.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +18.1%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -12.9%

Sanliurfaspor (A) 19.4%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -44.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Muglaspor face Sanliurfaspor in Turkey - 2. Lig on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Muglaspor a 53% chance, the draw 28% and Sanliurfaspor 19%, so Muglaspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Muglaspor and 0.7 for Sanliurfaspor (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Muglaspor are averaging 2.18 points per game versus 1.82 for Sanliurfaspor. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.1%. This match finished 0-0.

Muglaspor vs Sanliurfaspor Prediction— Turkey - 2. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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